← INFERRA AI

How we know
what we publish.

Every number here carries its source, the wording that supports it, and the period it describes. This page is how to check us.

A NUMBER, SHOWN IN FULL
63.5million · South Africa
“population increased from 42,9 million in 2002 to 63,5 million in 2026”
source
Statistics South Africa, Mid-Year Estimates
describes
mid-2026
read on
2026-08-04
replaced
60.7, a 2022 figure we’d been carrying as current

The period a number describes and the day we read it are two different dates. Confusing them is how a dataset goes quietly wrong.

A NUMBER WE DIDN’T PUBLISH
—AI-capable facilities · South Africa

Nobody publishes this count, and there’s no shared definition of what qualifies. We couldn’t reproduce our own previous value of 8 from any source.

So it ships as unverified, with the deployments we could confirm listed instead.

A gap you can see beats a number you can’t check.

01 / WHAT WE MEASURE

Five dimensions, weighted

Compute and connectivity weigh most, because they decide whether inference can run at all; policy and ecosystem decide whether it's practical to operate there.

  • Compute

    Whether AI-grade compute is actually available: AI-capable facilities, hyperscaler region depth, and whether GPUs can be rented or colocated at all.

    25%
  • Connectivity

    Submarine cable access, internet exchange density, and round-trip latency to the nearest European point of presence.

    25%
  • Power

    Grid reliability for sustained inference workloads. Large facilities run generators, which mitigates outages but raises operating cost.

    20%
  • Policy

    The rules you'd operate under: data protection in force, a national AI strategy, and whether cross-border data flows are aligned.

    15%
  • Ecosystem

    The founder and developer base that determines local talent, tooling, and actual demand for AI products.

    15%

An analyst assigns the scores using the bands below. A test recomputes the composite for every country on every build, so the weighting shown here is the one the data follows.

02 / HOW A SCORE IS ASSIGNED

What each band means

Every dimension runs 0–100 against fixed criteria, published in full so you can argue with a specific judgement rather than the number in general.

Compute25% of composite

80–100
5+ AI-capable data centres; two or more full hyperscaler regions; active GPU colocation
60–79
2–4 AI-capable data centres; at least one full region or local zone; GPUs colocatable
40–59
1–2 AI-capable data centres; edge points of presence only; GPUs scarce or expensive
20–39
0–1 AI-capable data centres; edge only; no practical GPU access
0–19
No AI-capable infrastructure

Connectivity25% of composite

80–100
Five or more cable systems, multiple IXPs, sub-60ms to Europe
60–79
Three or four cable systems, established IXP, 60–100ms
40–59
One or two cable systems or strong terrestrial transit, 100–150ms
20–39
Limited transit, minimal exchange presence, 150–200ms
0–19
Single fragile route or worse, over 200ms

Power20% of composite

80–100
Under 30 minutes average outage per day; renewables above 20%; strong facility power
60–79
Under 2 hours per day; major facilities independently powered
40–59
2–6 hours per day; large sites workable on generators
20–39
6–12 hours per day; severe reliability problems, high operating cost
0–19
Over 12 hours per day, or effectively no national grid

Policy15% of composite

80–100
Data protection law implemented, active national AI strategy, international data flow alignment
60–79
Data protection law in force and a published AI strategy
40–59
Either a data protection law or an AI strategy, not both
20–39
Basic telecoms regulation only
0–19
No relevant regulatory frameworks

Ecosystem15% of composite

80–100
Mature ecosystem, significant international venture capital, notable exits
60–79
Active ecosystem, multiple accelerators, notable venture deals
40–59
Growing ecosystem, some hubs, limited venture activity
20–39
Early stage, minimal hubs, pre-venture
0–19
Minimal tech ecosystem
03 / TIERS

What the composite means in practice

One question: can you run inference here today, or not yet.

60–100

Viable

Local or near-local inference is operationally feasible today.

40–59

Emerging

Infrastructure exists, with real gaps in compute, power or policy.

0–39

Emerging (Early)

Early stage. Offshore inference is the only practical option.

04 / WHERE THE NUMBERS COME FROM

Not all sources are equal

An operator describing its own capacity and a regulator publishing statistics are different kinds of evidence. Keeping them apart is what catches a planned facility reported as a running one.

  1. 01Self-disclosure

    The organisation describing itself. Authoritative on its own facilities, and commercially motivated.

    An operator's own capacity page, a company's financial filing

  2. 02Official statistics

    A national statistics office or sector regulator, independent of whoever is being described.

    National statistics releases, telecoms regulator quarterly reports

  3. 03Multilateral and specialist research

    Bodies that publish methodology alongside numbers.

    World Bank, ITU, PeeringDB, submarine cable registries, sector research firms

  4. 04Trade press

    Useful for corroboration and for finding primary sources. Never the sole basis for a value.

    Industry publications, general news reporting

Confidence

high
Verified against a primary source that states the value directly.
medium
Derived from more than one secondary source, or partly carried forward from an earlier pass.
low
Estimated from limited or indirect evidence. Treat with caution.

Three dates, kept apart

reporting_period
The period the number actually describes. This is the accuracy claim.
retrieved_at
When the source was read.
refreshed_at
When this country's collection pass ran.
05 / HOW WE CHECK

Two gates, and neither is us saying so

Collecting a number and confirming it are separate jobs, done separately on purpose.

GATE ONE / MECHANICAL

The quote has to be on the page

A script re-fetches every source and checks the quote is really there. Paraphrased or invented citations fail automatically. You can run it yourself; the evidence files are public.

GATE TWO / INDEPENDENT REVIEW

Someone else has to agree it supports the claim

A quote can be real and still not support the number: wrong operator, wrong year, a projection read as fact. A second reviewer, never the one who collected it, checks each value against its evidence.

06 / LIMITS

What this dataset is not

Stated here rather than discovered later.

  • Coverage is expanding toward the whole continent. The live dataset is always the authority on which markets are in.
  • Scores are analyst judgements. Two careful people could differ by a few points, which is why the criteria and the evidence are both public.
  • Some fields can’t be sourced to our standard. Those ship marked unverified, with the reasoning attached.
  • None of this is investment advice.

The whole protocol is public: schema, source rules, both gates, and how a pass becomes the live dataset.

Read the data protocol